2009 Predictions and Outright Guesses

2009 Predictions and outright guesses

I have jotted down a few predictions for 2009 just for kicks. Let me know what you think.

1. The US economy will continue to sputter through a recession despite repeated congressional attempts to inject $billions into specific sectors. Downsizing, layoffs and economic woes will make headlines throughout the year. The taxpayers will not realize their money is being wasted (or won’t care) and will clamor for more ‘bailouts’ throughout 2009. Recession will ease and/or end 4Q 2009, but we won’t know it until late 2Q or early 3Q 2010. The economic turmoil will spell opportunity for creative, forward thinkers.
2. US auto companies and suppliers struggle throughout 2009. GM and Chrysler will struggle to reinvent themselves and make little progress stipulated in December’s ‘bailout’, so will beg for more. Unsupportable fixed cost structures will mean plant closings and layoffs. The media will continue to shriek about the failure of the entire auto industry and play interest groups off of each other for a piece of the government largess pie. Foreign automakers quietly will gain market share, despite industry wide production cutbacks. Ford will stay on the sidelines of the begging, capitalizing on ongoing reinvention, and be the only viable survivor of the big three.
3. Central Ohio startup activity will increase during 2009, and funding opportunities will expand for worthy central Ohio companies via TechColumbus, The Ohio Tech Angels Funds and other public/private sources. VC funding will be scarce in 2009 in Central Ohio, but funding events will occur for the best opportunities.
4. A few Central Ohio startups will begin to make it big and already successful companies will flourish. Strong growth will occur in the companies that have strong leaders, dedicated employees, capable advisors and/or experienced and active boards. Several will benefit from our data voracious economy. A few will capitalize on environmentally friendly business models.
5. StartUp Weekend Cbus 2,0 will be attended by 200 people making it the largest in the nation two years running. It will again be hosted by TechColumbus and made successful by a large group of technologists and entrepreneurs working together. Several people from out if state will attend bringing their ideas to Columbus for validation. SWC2.0 will spawn 12 new companies, 2 of which will still be viable at the end of 2009.
6. Mobilization and instant access to media and information will continue to grow in importance and influence for business and entertainment purposes. Newspapers and traditional media outlets will continue to suffer, and fail to adapt with copy cat attempts at innovation. Interaction with technology will begin to move beyond keyboard and mouse. Voice recognition, gestures, inference and anticipation technologies will gain ground as personal technology integration increasingly relies on mobile devices. Mainstream technology users will benefit. Winners will be innovative device providers and carrier networks.
7. Social media will continue its expansion into everyday life and become the primary source of information, news and business innovation communication. It will begin to solidify its position as the vehicle for distributed collaboration and innovation. The collaboration and reputation economy will grow deeper roots during 2009 and be a part of the consumer / business economic recovery that helps end the recession. Several applications will attempt to help keep us from drowning in the torrent of information via FaceBook, Twitter, Digg, Ning, Meetup, wikis etc.
8. Green Initiatives and Technologies will grow in importance and acceptance. Corporations will continue to embrace green as both a cost reduction tactic and public relations strategy. Green initiatives that make economic sense will thrive while those made popular via emotional appeal will be found wanting. Individuals and families will incorporate more pro-environmental activities in their routines as long as it makes time and economic sense.
9. The Soviet military will step up global activity and test the new administration’s resolve and ability to respond in both hemispheres ala Georgia during the summer of 2008. Threats to freedom and national security will abound globally. Ukraine and other former Soviet occupied states are a likely target for Soviet intimidation. Cuba, Iran and Venezuela will benefit from increased Soviet global activity and interest in reasserting itself as a superpower. Low oil prices will limit the success of these efforts, but not until US resolve is gauged. Iran will continue to grow its nuclear program funded primarily by Chinese energy demands, and threaten its neighbors and the region’s stability.
10. Less than half of my predictions will be accurate at the end of 2009. Nothing like hedging your bets! Which ones do you think will be right?